Economy of crime in Colombia: an approach from illicit crops as a comparison between departments in the period in the years 2005 and 2019 Economía del crimen en Colombia: un enfoque desde los cultivos ilícitos como comparativo entre departamentos en el periodo en los años 2005 y 2019

Abstract

The Colombian economy has been characterized during its history by having various phases of economic growth, therefore, this document aims to analyze how crops, specifically coca, have impacted the country's economy, considering two groups of departments between 2005 and 2019 , the first is made up of Caldas, Cundinamarca and Guajira, characterized as the regions with the fewest hectares planted with coca, the second group is made up of Norte de Santander, Antioquia and Cauca, characterized as the territories with the most hectares planted with coca. 

For this analysis, data was collected from institutions such as DANE, Ideas Para la Paz Foundation and the Colombian Drug Observatory to analyze them through multiple regression econometric models. The results showed that, in the departments with more hectares planted with coca, the relationship between crops and economic growth is positive, while in the departments with fewer hectares planted with coca it is negative. 

To finish the work, the coefficients that resulted in the models were explained, to make sense of the results and provide public policy recommendations aimed at promoting economic growth that is not dependent on illicit coca crops. Within the methodology carried out, variables were collected that allowed quantifying the effect of illicit crops and related variables on economic growth. For this, a main macroeconomic variable (GDP), a demographic characteristic variable (unemployment rate), and an illicit crop variable (hectares planted with coca) were chosen.